It’s not that bad, it’s going to be OK.

That was the message of Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes Magazine at the Park City Chamber/Bureau 2009 Economic Forecast Luncheon on Monday.

Karlgaard, a business journalist and entrepreneur, believes the current climate is comparable to the 1973-1974 recession and is nowhere close to the 1930s.

“The media does a horrible disservice promiscuously throwing around the Great Depression. It was beyond anything any of us has experienced and to refer to it is to needlessly scare people,” he said.

Karlgaard’s optimism may sound unexpected, but the luncheon was full of that. Chamber/Bureau executive director Bill Malone started the event with a broadcast of Punxsutawney Phil announcing six more weeks of winter. Only in ski towns do people cheer that news.

Next, Malone jokingly admitted how many times he’d been wrong in 2008 about gas prices, summer travel and Park City’s immunity from the national economy.

“What can I say but, ‘Wow.’ It’s really been a roller coaster,” he said.

But Karlgaard provided statistics and case studies to justify his unexpected optimism.

To dispel comparisons of the Great Depression, he said the fourth quarter of 2008 was worse than any other recession, and could be called a “mini depression,” but stocks only fell about 45 percent. During the Great Depression they fell over 80 percent.

Thousands of people lost their jobs this winter, but in the 1930s, a quarter of the country couldn’t find work.

The 1920s were a period of unsustainable boom and bust. The prosperity the last decade was real, Karlgaard said, and lifted millions of people across the globe from enslaving poverty. In fact, except for the housing and financial sectors, no one even knew we were in a recession the first three quarters of 2008.

If you want to know where this country is headed, examine the early 1970s, he said.

Stocks fell 48 percent. The trouble started with rising oil prices. The Republican president’s approval rating was 24 percent.

What happened at the end of that recession was 13 percent inflation. Karlgaard predicts that again.

Bookkeepers will be pleasantly surprised by the economy in 2010, but we won’t feel it because of inflation.

That is a problem we can deal with, Karlgaard said. Inflation can be planned for and countered. Deflation sinks all boats, he said.

Karlgaard cautiously predicted banks will start loaning again in spring and recovery will be slow but steady.

“When bank stocks come up, we’ll know it’s a real recovery,” he said.

There are three market regulations dealing with housing prices and stock trading that must change for recovery to occur, but he’s fully confident President Barack Obama’s advisors will make those changes.

Lastly, his predictions for communities that will rise triumphant in the coming years bode well for Summit County.

He predicted the fast-changing and volatile economy we’re in now will create boom towns and ghost towns as major companies rise and fall.

What do winning communities have in common? Close proximity to research universities, a regional focus on economic development and support for entrepreneurs.

Malone believes that’s real reason for hope.

“It’s the optimism of entrepreneurs in this community that give us opportunity for growth,” he said.

Attendee Christie Kent is a recent transplant who is part of a new company helping researchers at the University of Utah become entrepreneurs. She said she really enjoyed Karlgaard’s assessment because she agrees start-ups build thriving communities.

Attendee Ari Ioannides runs a technology company that he said is growing, just like Karlgaard said, and he’s actually hiring and recruiting now bringing skilled people to Summit County.

“I appreciated hearing the economy is closer to that of the 1970s, which is when I grew up, so I’m familiar with that,” he said.