Many Parkites may be readying to enact their powder clause with this week’s major winter storm, but those heading into the backcountry should consider taking a step back as hazardous conditions are expected to increase.
Avalanche danger in the Salt Lake area was moderate earlier this week as high winds created unstable conditions. Yet officials with the Utah Avalanche Center anticipated spikes in risk starting Tuesday night as a significant storm blows through the region.
The National Weather Service forecasted the Wasatch Back would receive up to 2 feet of snow through Thursday, likely impacting travel. A winter storm warning remains in place until 5 a.m. on Thursday.
“There are certain things we are sure about: we know there’s going to be a lot of snow, we know there is going to be a lot of wind, and we know that we’re going to see avalanches. The uncertainty lies in how quickly those problems are going to stabilize,” Nikki Champion, a forecaster with the Utah Avalanche Center, said.
Officials saw new snowfall in the backcountry over the weekend, which caused a wide variety of surface conditions, as slabs – which occur when a strong layer of snow sits on top of a weak layer – formed in some areas. Some cold, clear nights caused the surface to weaken, Champion said.
These are “minor issues” compared to what this week’s storm could bring.
Forecasters are more concerned about the predicted 30 to 40 inches of snow that will likely have a high water content. Champion estimated the wet snowfall that started Tuesday could bring around 2 to 3 inches of water, which is average for Utah, but it puts additional weight on the snowpack.
“That’s going to react a lot differently,” she said. “What that means is it will likely create a slab, or create a problem in itself. It’s going to have body, it’s going to have density, and we’re going to see avalanches within it.”
The new snow delivered by the storm is expected to be unstable, and Champion is uncertain about how it will bond in the backcountry. Avalanche danger is expected to rise until the conditions stabilize.
Officials are unsure about how long that will last, but warned avalanches are likely to occur during this time because of the surface variety. Champion said it may only take a day or two for the snow to bond. However, it could also take longer depending on factors such as the direction the slope faces, elevation and whether the snow is sugary, or weak.
“We just don’t know. We just have to wait and see. Sometimes that snow lands and buries the facets, and we don’t see anything because it’s not very large. Sometimes they’re more sensitive,” she said. “There’s uncertainty about how long the layer is going to be unstable, but there is certainty that avalanche danger is going to rise.”
Backcountry users are encouraged to adjust their mindset, take a step back and reevaluate while conditions remain ambiguous.
“This is the type of storm that’s going to catch people off guard. Because we’ve been in that stepping-out mindset, getting into those big lines and setting those big objectives – that’s where a lot of people are right now. But we’re going back into having pretty dangerous conditions,” Champion said.
She reminded recreationists to check conditions before entering the backcountry amid the amount of uncertainty. They should also have the proper avalanche equipment and training. Champion also suggested utilizing small test slopes on non-consequential slopes that are similar to the terrain skiers want to run.
The daily avalanche forecast and additional information can be found on the Utah Avalanche Center website, utahavalanchecenter.org.