In Park City, we have closed the book on another ski season — a few weeks earlier than we may have anticipated when we began the season back in November.

We can thank Mother Nature for its premature conclusion. It is no secret that this season has been historically bad. It has been well-documented in this column, as well as across local and national media, that the entire West has been facing one of its worst seasons on record.

You may be wondering, what about those of us here in Summit County? Was this our worst winter season ever in terms of snowfall? 

The answer, of course, is that it depends on how you look at it. If I have learned anything from my nearly two decades of working in the ski industry is that conditions are highly subjective. One person’s “worst season ever” could be another person’s best season.

So it is very possible that your view of the season differs from what I — or the numbers — say about our winter. 

When we look at this winter, we have to start by looking at the warmth. Utah had its warmest meteorological winter (December-February) ever, by a wide margin. This was then followed by a March in which we absolutely smashed the record for warmest March on record.

Obviously, warmer temperatures mean that snow levels will be higher. Park City had a number of notable rain events in town, and often that rain extended well up onto the mountain.

Not only do warmer temperatures mean less snow, but it also means that resorts have fewer opportunities to make snow. The snow that does fall is more likely to melt. It may sound obvious, but consistently warmer temperatures have a massive impact on snow conditions. 

Nowhere is the impact of warm temperatures more obvious than when we compare our snowpack numbers to total precipitation. If we look simply at the amount of precipitation received since the start of the water year on Oct. 1, 2025, we find that we are tracking at 85% of median precipitation. 

Yes, 85% is below normal, but only marginally below normal. We have had many seasons with far less than 85% of median precipitation at this point of the water year. In terms of precipitation, this has not been a notably dry year. 

However, when we look at snowpack, it tells are far different and more ominous story. 

We are currently sitting at just 50% of median at Thaynes Canyon in the high elevations of Park City. While we managed to peak above the previous minimum season, our record heat in March caused a far-earlier-than-normal melting of the snowpack. Last week, we dropped below the record minimum for the date. 

While these numbers are poor, it’s important to note these numbers are for the higher elevations. They do not accurately reflect the lower elevations of Deer Valley and Park City, where the impact of the warm temperatures was more acutely felt.

You may have noticed that we were unable to maintain a consistent base for much of the season on the lower half of the mountain. While we don’t have a way to compare low elevation snowpack at Park City historically to previous years, I have to think this was likely the worst season on record for the low elevations. 

For me personally, it was a painful season both professionally and personally. My job is to forecast fresh snow. My favorite activity is to ski fresh snow.

Being a merchant of bad news all season has been emotionally draining. I care deeply about what I do and helping folks score their best day possible on the mountain. Therefore, I would certainly call this my worst season ever. I hope to never have to forecast another season like this one.

Where do we go from here? While skiing may be over in Park City, it continues for at least a couple more weeks in the neighboring Cottonwood Canyons. Snow coverage is still good and it looks like we may get fresh snow early next week. There are still opportunities to score powder yet! 

Hydrologically, we should all be rooting for a wet spring season in Utah. Utah’s Natural Resources Conservation Service office indicated that we had our lowest April 1 snowpack in history statewide and that it will “strongly influence water supply forecasts” as we head into summer.

We can also expect developing or worsening drought conditions across the state, as well as elevated wildfire danger this summer. Do your rain dances and be thankful for any and all precipitation we can squeeze out in the coming months.

Thank you for sticking with me this season as we navigated an unprecedentedly poor winter season here in Park City. I truly wish I had more good news to share with you throughout the season. Perhaps next year, The Outlook will return to offering its readers something to look forward to in the upcoming week rather than just a weekly dose of bad news. Until then, I wish you all a wonderful summer season. 

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: This season was hard on everyone appeared first on Park Record.

A lot can change in a week. Since my last edition of The Outlook, we saw Deer Valley announce its closure, celebrate one final weekend, and then completely cease winter operations — all in a matter of a few days. Park City, similarly, closed the majority of its terrain this past weekend, with only a limited area on the Canyons side remaining open.

Both of these mountains fell victim to a poor snowpack that simply could not hold up against unprecedented March heat.

Of course, in one of life’s cruel ironies, Mother Nature is now mocking us with colder weather and snow returning this week as two separate storms move in Utah. 

The first storm, which arrives Tuesday evening and continues into Wednesday morning, will be the warmer of the two storms. While we will see some cooling, snow levels are expected to remain at or above 8,000 feet for much of the event, with rain in town. This means that the snow that does fall by Wednesday morning will be quite dense and confined to the highest elevations. Accumulations of 4-8 inches are likely by Wednesday morning along the high Park City ridgeline. 

The second storm will arrive early on Thursday morning, continuing through the day into Thursday night. It will usher in much colder air with snow levels crashing to even the lowest valley floors. 

If you are looking for some fluffier powder, late in the day on Thursday or first thing on Friday morning will be your best bet. This second, colder storm will bring 6-12 inches of fresh snow to the high elevations. 

Total accumulation between the two systems is likely to be 10-18 inches in the high elevations around Park City.

For lift-serviced skiing, you will either have to head to the Canyons side of Park City or drive to the Cottonwood Canyons to enjoy this fresh snow. 

For those of you wondering where this past month has put us in a historical context, well, we have officially reached new levels of snowpack infamy. The record-shattering March heatwave and resulting snow melt have left us with a record-low snowpack for this date. 

This was not our worst season ever from a peak snowpack standpoint, as we have discussed in previous columns. However, we have been losing snowpack far earlier than we have ever seen before.

Typically, this site does not fully melt out until around June 1. This year, it’s possible that all the snow will be gone by late April. This may have implications for our water resources and fire danger as we head into summer. I think it is safe to say that we should all be hoping for a wet spring to help us stave off these risks. 

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: Sure, close and then here comes some snow appeared first on Park Record.

The western half of the United States just experienced one of the most remarkable spring heatwaves — relative to normal — anybody has ever seen.

If you set foot outside at any point between Tuesday and Saturday of last week, it will come as no surprise that Park City was not spared in this anomalous warmth. If it felt more like summer than early spring to you, that’s because the temperatures we saw last week were more typical of June than March. 

Perhaps the most telling graphic was from NOAA, which mapped some of the sites that saw their warmest-ever temperatures during the month of March. 

In many cases, these locations had never before seen temperatures this warm in April. To see so many records shattered in such a way across a broad swath of our country was truly astonishing. 

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how we saw the warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record here in Utah. Now March is on track, at least in Salt Lake City, to be the warmest March on record and by quite a large margin. 

What has all this heat done to our snowpack? Not good things. Park City’s Thaynes Canyon SNOTEL site has seen a noticeable drop in snow-water-equivalent (SWE) over the past week. 

This site does not typically peak until the middle of April. As such, seeing a steep decline in snowpack in mid-March is concerning. Because of this drop, we have now fallen to 62% of median for the date. 

On the mountain itself, the snow has been somewhat resilient up high on north-facing aspects. In those locations, you could actually find some decent spring skiing conditions over the past week, so long as you could get to it before it turned to sticky mashed potatoes later in the day. However, down low, where the snowpack was already suffering before the heatwave, the snow is all but gone. 

Deer Valley and Park City, as of the time of writing, still both show closing dates in mid-April. Whether they can make it to those dates remains to be seen. 

Over the next week, we are going to see very warm, possibly record, temperatures continue through the middle portion of the week. We will see modest cooling heading into the weekend. Some atmospheric moisture may work its way into Utah from the south this weekend, bringing a slight chance for afternoon showers in the high elevations. 

As for any chances of hope for real, winter-like storms to return to Utah … I do have good news on that front. Forecast models have been consistently showing a more active pattern developing next week, at the very end of March and beginning of April. While it is still early for details, it looks like we should see much cooler temperatures and chances for mountain snowfall next week. 

Will it be too little, too late? That remains to be seen. 

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: Epic warmth with glimmers of winter a week away appeared first on Park Record.

March is supposed to offer a taste of spring, not a full serving of summer. But here we are on the verge of shattering March temperature records as a dominant high-pressure ridge builds over the Intermountain West. 

Even with a normal snowpack, I would be looking at this ridge and wondering if this was the beginning of the end of ski season in Utah. Considering we are currently sitting on record-low snowpack numbers throughout much of the state, I am left aghast.

I try not to be hyperbolic in my weather forecasts, but we are truly entering uncharted territory. I am left wondering how much, if any, skiing will survive at the end of this month. 

Temperatures are already climbing quickly, but they will peak Thursday through Saturday of this week. In Salt Lake City, temperatures are likely to soar into the low 80s for daytime highs. In Park City, we will be pushing 70°F in town. The entire Western United States is being thrown into the cauldron. 

Even the conservative European model is showing near-record temperatures this week in Park City. 

As for precipitation, we have no shot at anything for the next week. We will be high and dry, with storms being pushed well to our north into the far northern Rockies and Canada. 

As for our state’s snowpack, it is already declining, and we have not even begun to see the main impacts of the heatwave.

Finishing this season with a record-low peak statewide average snowpack is a near-certainty at this point. It will be almost impossible for us to recover from the upcoming melt-off of low-, mid-, and even some high-elevation sites. 

As for the implications on the ski season, I’m left wondering the same thing as everybody else. None of us has ever been in a position of seeing the temperature get this warm for this long this early in the spring, with this low of an existing snowpack.

It is truly unprecedented. When there isn’t a precedent, it’s hard to have an expectation. All we can do is watch and hope the snowpack is more resilient than expected, and we somehow make it through the next seven days with enough snow to keep skiing. Otherwise, early closings look likely for some of the lower-elevation ski resorts in Utah.

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: A forecast that would be great … for summer appeared first on Park Record.

I ended last week’s Outlook by recommending that if you wanted powder, you needed to get it while you could on Thursday and Friday because it was starting to look likely that high pressure would take control this week.

I hope you were able to heed that advice. Thursday features great soft snow conditions. Now, as promised, we are heading into a full-on spring blowtorch across much of the West. 

Sunny skies will be the dominant weather feature for the foreseeable future. We will be brushed by a weak, dry cold front that will act to cool us down for the midweek period, but we warm back up into the 50s in the lower elevations late in the week. 

A similar system will then clip northern Utah again this weekend with a few clouds, a slight chance for showers, and some modestly cooler temperatures, but then next week it looks like record-breaking warmth could be possible. 

Early indications suggest that Park City could easily surge up into the 60s or maybe even exceed 70°F next week. Salt Lake City could top 80°. That means that if you are going to ski next week (March 17-22), get out early before the snow turns to slush later in the day. 

We have talked repeatedly over the last few months about our snowpack and its plights this season. I am now left posing an ominous question, “Could our Park City high-elevation snowpack have already peaked for the season?”

Normally, this would be an absurd suggestion. In an average year, our max snowpack numbers do not occur until mid-April, sometimes later. But with record warmth ahead, and an upcoming snowfall forecast that looks like this …

… I am left wondering if perhaps we could see an unusually early apex for our numbers. 

If we look at the Park City (Thaynes Canyon) snowpack data as of Tuesday, we see that we remain at around 77% of median for the date. 

The green line represents the median snowpack value. Notice that it typically reaches its apex, as mentioned above, deep into April. The blue line represents our worst year on record, which was the 2014-15 season. You can see that this year (black line), we have already exceeded that season’s maximum snowpack numbers. Infamy avoided! Statistically, we will not have our worst snowfall year on record — at least here in Park City. Phew! 

The state of Utah, on the other hand, may not be as lucky. In previous columns, I have spoken about how poor the low-elevation snowpack is relative to the higher elevations due to the record warmth we have seen this year. This warmth has elevated snow levels and accelerated melting at lower elevations.

Because of our upcoming heat wave, we may have seen the statewide average snowpack peak. But unlike Park City’s Thayne’s Canyon site, the statewide average has not yet reached the levels necessary to avoid the distinction of worst season on record. Don’t be surprised if we start seeing headlines in the coming weeks declaring this the worst snow season on record for the state of Utah. 

Will we get snow again? I would have to think the answer is “yes.” Normally, we always have a few good powder days after the spring equinox. But this year has been anything but normal, so I’m hesitant to offer any guarantees. I am hopeful the pattern switches back to cold and snow at least one more time before we see a more permanent seasonal transition to spring.

I’d say hold off on putting away the powder gear for now. We haven’t put the final nail in winter’s coffin quite yet. 

The post The Outlook: Ugh, the blowtorch again appeared first on Park Record.

Congratulations! We all just lived through the warmest winter on record in Utah.

Meteorological winter is defined as December through February, constituting the three coldest months climatologically in the northern hemisphere.

Salt Lake City International Airport had an average temperature for these three months of 40.7°F. For context, that is 7.6° warmer than normal. It also broke the previous record for warmest winter by an astounding 2.2°. To break a seasonal record by that kind of margin is truly remarkable. 

I recently spent an afternoon digging into both precipitation and snowfall data across the state for the water year thus far. The beginning of the “water year” is Oct. 1. Since Oct. 1, 2025, most of Utah, you may be surprised to learn, is actually around normal in terms of total precipitation. These SNOTEL automated sensors are mostly around normal across the Wasatch and Uintas.

If you were to show me this without context, I would have assumed that Utah was having a normal snow year because I would have assumed normal temperatures. However, given that we have been having a record-shatteringly warm winter, these numbers have not translated to anything close to a normal snowpack.

As we have discussed repeatedly in this column, our statewide snowpack has been trending near 60% of average for much of the season. Park City isn’t faring much better with the current upper elevation snowpack near 70%, but much of the lower mountain is showing bare dirt. 

The good news is that this week is bringing a reprieve from warm storms. We have already seen one storm this week, which started with higher snow levels on Sunday and Monday but trended cooler by Tuesday. The upper elevations of Park City picked up 8 inches of new snow, with lesser amounts down toward Deer Valley. 

Another, even colder, storm is approaching Utah. It will arrive by Thursday morning and bring snow to all elevations through the day Thursday into Thursday night, perhaps lingering into early Friday. 

The cold air associated with this storm will allow for higher snow-to-liquid ratios. This is a measure of how light or dense the snow is. Our current forecast shows these ratios around 15:1 for the duration of the storm. This means for every inch of precipitation that falls, we receive 15 inches of snow.

This would qualify as “fluffy,” and more typical of Utah’s “Greatest Snow on Earth.” 

As for amounts, over a foot of snow will be possible in the Cottonwood Canyons, with amounts in the range of 6-12” for Park City and Deer Valley. 

We can see this same map in 3D in order to visualize how the higher amounts are likely in the upper elevations. 

At Park City, the models show an average of roughly 9” of snow for the storm at mid-mountain. 

Get after this fresh powder on Thursday and Friday while we have it! Unfortunately, it looks like high pressure is going to take control this weekend and is likely to continue into next week. I would say we will have spring skiing conditions next week, but I’m fairly certain we’ve had spring skiing conditions all winter. 

The post The Outlook: Spring skiing is on the way appeared first on Park Record.

Over the past week, we were reminded what a true Utah winter is likev—vover two feet of fresh snow with cold temperatures to keep the snow fluffy.

We were treated to multiple consecutive powder days in the Wasatch. It was easily the best week of skiing I have had all winter. I hope you were able to get out there and enjoy the feast. 

The theme from early in the season was warm storms, high snow levels, and dense snow. We are returning to that meteorological motif with a storm that arrives Tuesday this week and continues through Wednesday.

This system is pulling ample subtropical moisture from the Pacific, with little in the way of cold arctic air to combat its mild origins. As such, snow levels will rise to near 9,000 feet in the northern Utah mountains on Tuesday afternoon and remain elevated through Tuesday night, only falling marginally to near 8,000 feet on Wednesday, once most of the precipitation has waned. 

This means that dreaded R-word is back. Rain. Rain for the base elevations. Rain possible at midmountain. It might only be the highest peaks of the Park City ridgeline that are spared the deluge. 

Despite ample precipitation amounts of up to 1.5 inches …

…the actual snow amounts we will get will be quite low, with only a few dense inches way up high.

This large disparity between the upper elevations and the lower elevations of the mountains is evident when we look at the OpenSnow Forecast Snowfall maps in 3D. 

Virtually no snow for the lower mountain, with perhaps 4 to 8 inches on the peaks. When we zoom in on Main Street in Park City, we can see that accumulating snow is unlikely during this storm. Up at Jupiter Peak, however, we could get some halfway decent accumulation. 

The good news is that even if we see rain at lower elevations, the fresh snow from last week will easily absorb most of the water. Snowpacks are incredibly efficient at absorbing large amounts of water on top of snow before they get fully saturated. This means that even rain events can help to boost the snowpack as existing snow acts as a sponge to further increase the water content of the snow. 

If you do plan to ski on Wednesday, I would highly recommend waterproof gear and trying to get as high in elevation as possible in order to have the best chance of scoring actual fresh snow on the ground. If you can manage to get up there in elevation, the conditions may be good with several inches of creamy, dense snow. 

We are going to clear out with dry weather Thursday through Saturday. On Sunday, a weak system will approach Utah and may bring additional showers with high-elevation snow early next week. At this point, this does not look like a big snow producer. 

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: The feast ends for the moment as rain returns to forecast appeared first on Park Record.

It’s snowing! 

Have more beautiful words ever been spoken? 

Last week we had a small appetizer, but this week we are finally being fed the main course. A strong storm is pushing through Utah as I write this. And unlike the majority of our storms earlier in this season, this one has plenty of cold air with it. That will help the snow feel more like our typical “Greatest Snow on Earth.” 

The first wave of this storm brought lighter snowfall amounts Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the stronger part of the system is arriving on Wednesday with heavy snowfall likely for most of the day, tapering off by Thursday. 

Snowfall amounts are expected to be significant with 1 to 2 feet of new snow by Thursday over Park City’s mountains. We can also expect 6-12 inches of snow in town. 

Deer Valley’s forecasted snowfall graph through Friday:

Snow levels will not be an issue with this storm and its ample cold air. 

As for skiing and snowboarding, Wednesday is expected to be a true storm day with cold, snow, and wind. If you enjoy storm skiing, that will be your day, with “free refills” on each lap. If you prefer the calmer, after-the-storm vibe, then Thursday will have plenty of powder left over for you. 

A weaker, follow-up system is sliding just to our south Thursday night into Friday. We could see a few inches of refresh for Friday if this piece of energy manages to stay far enough north. 

This weekend will be clear and calm with fresh snow and hopefully some additional new terrain opening after the fresh snow. A perfect time to get out with the family to enjoy the new snow. 

Looking ahead to next week, the crystal ball shows more chances for storms with forecast models honing in on another storm during the midweek period (February 24-26). With any luck, we will have more snow to talk about in next week’s edition of The Outlook. 

Enjoy the powder! We have earned it! 

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: Now this forecast is more like it appeared first on Park Record.

The long-awaited change in our weather pattern has finally arrived! Unfortunately, as we have discussed in recent weeks, it did not arrive in time to prevent us from falling into record-low snowpack territory. If we are going to suffer, we might as well set records, eh?

Our initial system this week will bring high elevation snow off and on to the mountains around Park City through Thursday. This system is arriving in the form of a cut-off low-pressure system off the California coast, sending moisture inland toward Utah. 

Due to the warm antecedent conditions ahead of this storm, along with a generally mild southwesterly flow during the storm, snow levels are going to remain elevated throughout the event — likely at or above 7,000 feet. That means the base elevations of Park City and Deer Valley will likely see rain at times through this storm. 

The heaviest precipitation should fall through the day on Wednesday, with a gradual decrease in intensity Wednesday night into early Thursday. By Thursday evening, our total accumulation on the upper sections of the mountain should range from 6 to 12 inches. 

Deer Valley, which notoriously does well in southwest flows, could be on the higher end of that range if all goes according to plan. 

As mentioned previously, however, the snow levels will be a mitigating factor for accumulations, especially on the lower mountain. We could see a stark contrast in new snowfall amounts from the bottom of the mountain to the upper elevations. 

As for ski conditions, while Wednesday will be the main storm day, Thursday may offer the best chances for powder with aggregate totals, terrain openings, and slightly cooler temperatures. 

The good news is that after a break in the action for the holiday weekend, all weather models agree on more chances for snow arriving next week. From roughly Tuesday through Saturday of next week (Feb. 17-21), we could have multiple waves of energy move inland from an eastern Pacific trough. This pattern will also bring colder air, allowing for lower snow levels and higher snow quality. Accumulations appear potentially significant when considering the full forecast for the next 15 days. 

Fingers and toes are crossed that this pattern comes to fruition. It might be too late to salvage a “normal” season here in the Wasatch, but I would like to avoid the infamy that comes with a “worst season ever” designation. Keep your snow dances going! 

The post The Outlook: Better late than never as snowstorms begin to arrive again appeared first on Park Record.

It’s official. This is now the worst statewide snowpack we have ever had, dating back to 1980, when the SNOTEL station program began. Our statewide median snowpack (black line) has now fallen below the previous minimum (red line). 

At 56% of the median for the date, we are going to need a miracle to finish this winter season anywhere near normal. 

As for Park City, our Thaynes Canyon SNOTEL site continues to flatline. We are now even with the previous minimum snowpack for the date and sitting at 63% of the median. 

Unfortunately, high pressure will remain in control for the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. However, we should finally see an end to our long dry stretch of weather next week as the pattern changes across Western North America. 

While details remain vague, the consensus in the weather models is that the ridge of high pressure will break down early next week. This will allow a system to drop down the West Coast, eventually dragging a cold front across the Great Basin and into Utah around Tuesday, Feb. 10. This should bring us our first chance for snow in Utah for the middle portion of next week. 

Beyond that, a trough in the jet stream may set up over the western states, which will continue to keep the door open for additional storms. Model averages show significant precipitation will be possible across the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and the Intermountain West, including Utah. 

Will this finally be the end of our nightmarishly dry stretch of weather? I would say, yes, it is highly likely this will be the end of our suffering. Is it going to get us anywhere close to “normal” in terms of snowfall amounts? No, I don’t think so, at least not anytime soon. 

Next week, I expect to be able to share more specific details on individual storms and snowfall amounts. Until then, keep an ear and eye on the forecast and start preparing yourself for winter’s return.

For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app. 

The post The Outlook: Snowpack hits bottom; is relief on the way? appeared first on Park Record.